A year ago, Kevin Harvick needed to win at Dover International Speedway, and he did just that to advance in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.There were other clutch performances, including Jamie McMurrays fourth-place finish that just wasnt good enough for him to hold on to the last spot by points as Dale Earnhardt Jr.s third-place finish earned him the final position. And then there was Jimmie Johnson?and a broken seal that resulted in him not advancing.The race on Sunday at Dover could produce similar riveting moments -- although none of the drivers currently outside the top 12 should have much confidence in a win-and-in day.Heres how those Chase drivers -- other than first-round winners?Martin Truex Jr.?and Harvick, who have advanced to the quarterfinal round with their victories -- stack up heading into the elimination race at Dover. The three winners automatically are in, with the other nine (or 10 if a non-Chaser wins) determined by points. Ties are broken by best finish in the first round.Brad Keselowski (1st)Points: 35 points ahead of 13th, 30 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 29th (34th if Dover winner is not outside the top 12)Outlook: Even if he doesnt win, the current series points leader would need to fall at least 10 spots in the standings. So he is pretty much in. In 13 career starts at Dover, he has never finished worse than 22nd.Kyle Busch (3rd)Points: 33 points ahead of 13th, 28 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 27th (32nd if winner is not outside the top 12).Outlook: Like Keselowski, those are pretty good odds for Busch, although Busch did finish 42nd in June 2014 and 30th in May at Dover. But even if Busch had a horrible day, to fall eight or nine spots in the standings would require the perfect storm.Matt Kenseth (4th)Points: 26 points ahead of 13th; 21 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 21st (26th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: He has finished outside the top 20 twice in his past 17 Dover starts. Hell be fine; he has led 74 laps in the past two races at Dover and has led laps in nine of his past 11 starts there.Joey Logano (5th)Points: 21 points ahead of 13th, 16 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 15th (20th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Dover is not one of Loganos best tracks in a Cup car (he won four consecutive Xfinity races in sweeping the 2012 and 2013 races), but it is one of those tracks where he rarely leads laps in Cup, albeit he hasnt had awful performances, at least in recent years. The one thing to worry about? He wasnt great there in the spring, finishing 22nd.Denny Hamlin (7th)Points: 19 points ahead of 13th; 14 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 13th (18th if winner is not outside top 12).Outlook: Like Logano, he has won at Dover -- in the Xfinity Series (twice). Hamlin needs to put together a full race; he led 118 laps in May 2015 but still finished 21st. Just last week, his pit crew losing control of a tire resulted in Hamlin going to the rear and costing him several spots.Jimmie Johnson (8th)Points: 18 points ahead of 13th, 13 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 12th (17th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Johnson heads to one of his best tracks. Yes, last year, he finished 41st and dropped from fifth to 13th in the standings (missing the cut) after entering the race needing to finish just 26th. But he obviously feels good heading into Dover, a place where he has won 10 times and led 3,003 laps.Chase Elliott (9th)Points: 16 points ahead of 13th, 11 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 10th (15th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Elliott has some pressure, but he has not finished worse than seventh in his six national series races at Dover. He was third in May.Carl Edwards (10th)Points: 16 points ahead of 13th, 11 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 10th (15th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Edwards has one career Cup win at Dover (in 2007) but hasnt had a top-10 finish in his past seven starts. He has confidence, though, from leading 27 laps at Dover in May before a crash. Edwards cant beat himself, which he did last week at New Hampshire, where he admittedly didnt realize he needed all four tires inside the orange box on the commitment line. He thought he needed only two and was confused, as the rules depend on the track.Kurt Busch (11th)Points: 15 points ahead of 13th, 10 points ahead of 12thClinch if finishes: 9th (14th if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Busch won at Dover in October 2011 but has led only eight laps since then and didnt have a top-10 finish at Dover until May, when he placed fifth.Kyle Larson (12th)Points: 5 points ahead of 13th, 10 points behind 11thClinch if finishes: 1st (fourth if winner is not outside top 12)Outlook: Larson obviously is in a precarious position, but he should feel good about Dover. He led 85 laps there in May on his way to a runner-up finish. And he has finishes of 11th, sixth, third, ninth and second in his five career Cup starts at the track.Jamie McMurray (13th)Points: 5 points behind 12th, 15 points behind 11thClinch if finishes: 1stOutlook: McMurray will need pretty much a career performance at Dover, where he has just two top-five finishes in 19 starts. One of those was a fourth-place finish a year ago, but just like a year ago, a fourth-place finish might not be enough.Austin Dillon (14th)Points: 5 points behind 12th, 15 points behind 11thClinch if finishes: 1stOutlook: Dillon has less of a chance for the career performance that he needs when compared to McMurray. Dillon has just one top-20 finish -- a 20th -- in six career Cup starts at Dover.Tony Stewart (15th)Points: 11 points behind 12th, 21 points behind 11thClinch if finishes: 1stOutlook: Stewart wasnt happy with his performance in May at Dover, a track where he has just one top-five (a win in June 2013) and two top-10 finishes in his past 11 starts. The three-time Sprint Cup champion needs some of the magic Kevin Harvick had last year. That will be tough, considering his recent struggles.Chris Buescher (16th)Points: 30 points behind 12th, 40 points behind 11thClinch if finishes: 1stOutlook: Buescher won an Xfinity race in May 2015 at Dover. 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